Fisheries research, monitoring, and conservation
The Examiner
By Gary London
September 21, 2012
New long range data less optimistic than previous models.
Latest information from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now suggests that the expected El Nino event for enhanced west coast rainfall this winter may be of less significance than previously forecast.
In addition, recent sea surface temperature data has shown only minimal indication of the telltale oceanic warming of equatorial waters west of South America normally associated with the development of significant El Nino conditions.
The very latest monthly update of precipitation and temperature profiles for the next 6 to 8 months has reduced and restricted expected rainfall surpluses across the southern and southwestern U.S. Whereas last month’s prediction strongly suggested moderate to heavy precipitation along a belt from California across the southern U.S., today’s new forecast has confined above normal precipitation areas to a narrower belt, with a cutoff line maintaining a position along the California-Arizona border.
NOAA’s latest winter 2012-13 rainfall prediction for California and the U.S.
New models suggest the wettest period will begin in December and continue through March or April, 2013. The most affected areas stretch from the Colorado River across the entire southern U.S. The northern extremity runs along a line from north-central Arizona east through central New Mexico and Texas before curving gradually northeastward across the southern Gulf States. The most affected areas are generally in the vicinity of the 33rd parallel. Los Angeles’ latitude is 34 degrees north.
This is not final, however. A number of variables will determine actual precipitation areas and amounts, and these are very fluid in nature, subject to change with little or no advance warning.
