Thursday June 18, 2026
The Conversation —
There is a more than 60% chance that a “super” El Niño will develop by the end of this year.
This is defined as the strongest El Niño event you can get, and happens when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise by more than 2°C. During a super El Niño, the ocean gives off extra heat into the air, which helps raise global temperatures. Because climate change is already warming the planet, a super El Niño could push global temperatures to the highest levels ever recorded.
El Niño conditions have already begun this year, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. While El Niño is a natural phenomenom, climate change means that El Niños are becoming stronger and more frequent.
Hotter sea surface temperatures could spell big problems for marine wildlife and fisheries alike. As the oceans warm, they become more layered, leading to warm, nutrient-poor water sitting on the surface, and cooler, nutrient-rich water trapped below. This layering makes it harder for nutrients to rise to the surface. As a result, there are fewer nutrients available for phytoplankton, the tiny plants that form the base of the marine food chain.