Friday March 3, 2023
CDFW —
At the annual Salmon Information Meeting held virtually today, state and federal fishery scientists presented the numbers of spawning salmon that returned to California’s rivers late in 2022 and announced the abundance forecasts for key California stocks. The 2023 projection for Sacramento River fall Chinook, the most predominant stock harvested in California’s fisheries, is estimated at 169,767 adults, one of the lowest forecasts since 2008 when the current assessment method began. For Klamath River fall Chinook the forecast is 103,793 adults which is the second lowest forecast since the current assessment method began in 1997. While low and disappointing, neither abundance forecast is the lowest recorded. In 2009, the Sacramento forecast was 122,200 and in 2017, the Klamath forecast was 54,200.
Salmon numbers are episodic over time and life cycles, which is generally a three year period from birth as eggs hatching to returning adults from the ocean. For example, in 2022 ocean commercial catch was considerably greater than preseason expectations. The data also indicates in years following wetter hydrologic years that abundance is higher. For example, the 2010 above average rainfall year resulted in higher stock forecasts of California adult Chinook in 2012 and 2013.