Monday October 2, 2023


Current El Niño conditions are likely to develop into one of the strongest events on record — comparable to the major El Niño of 1997-98 — according to an experimental prediction system developed for research purposes by the National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

“Our forecast system has shown that it can do a remarkably good job of accurately hindcasting past El Niño events when we’ve tested it using historical data, which gives us high confidence in this forecast,” said NCAR scientist Stephen Yeager, who helped lead the modeling effort.

El Niño events are characterized by warmer-than-average temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon, which usually peaks in December, can have a significant impact on weather patterns across the country, causing the northern U.S. and Canada to become warmer and drier than usual while the southern U.S. becomes wetter.

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