Wednesday April 8, 2026
San Francisco Chronicle —
A rare cluster of three tropical cyclones will straddle both sides of the equator in the western Pacific this week, generating what one scientist called potentially the strongest westerly wind burst over the equatorial Pacific in the recent century. The burst is pushing warm water eastward at a critical moment, accelerating what Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany, said has “real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years.”
The just-released April seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows virtually all of its models expect the world to reach El Niño conditions by mid-June. Roughly half project sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2.5 degrees Celsius above average by October.
A strong El Niño would likely significantly reshape global weather patterns, potentially pushing global temperatures to record levels in 2027.
The tropical cyclones are just the latest evidence of an emerging, potentially record El Niño. Their combined circulation is fueling the westerly wind burst now pushing warm water eastward across the Pacific. That burst “is located west of the warmest water presently in the Pacific Ocean, so it is ideally placed to drive that warm water eastward to form a strong El Niño event,” Roundy said. He estimated the setup could cause El Niño to arrive quickly, within one to two months.