Wednesday August 16, 2023
Live Science —
This year’s El Niño may drive ocean temperatures to “substantially exceed” those recorded during the last strong event in early 2016, scientists have warned.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) latest El Niño update also says there is a more than 95% chance the event will last through to February 2024, with far-reaching climate impacts.
“El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter,” NOAA staff wrote in the update. “Our global climate models are predicting that the warmer-than-average Pacific ocean conditions will not only last through the winter, but continue to increase.”
Scientists officially announced the onset of El Niño in early June. El Niño is an ocean-warming event that typically occurs every two to seven years in the central and eastern Pacific, driving air temperatures up around the globe.
Its strongest climate impacts are usually felt during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter and early spring, bringing more rain and storms across the southern U.S., southeastern South America, the Horn of Africa and eastern Asia. In other parts of the world, such as southeastern Africa and Indonesia, El Niño leads to drier conditions and may increase the risk of drought.